Rev Infect Dis. 1986 Mar-Apr;8(2):295-305. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE
Epidemiologic inferences about the epidemic of acquired immunodeficiency
syndrome (AIDS) are developed from three different sources: case-control
studies, cohort studies, and national data on prevalence and incidence.
Together these data imply that reducing the number of sexual partners
may in itself provide little protection. Shifting to a lower-risk
behavior will only be helpful if the cumulative risk of transmitting the
virus can be reduced nearly to zero. However, if all members of a
minimally affected population made such a shift, the benefit to that
population could be dramatic. The emerging realization that latency
periods are longer than was first thought implies that the epidemic
could be much more severe than has been anticipated. Regional trends
give no assurance that it has reached a peak, even in areas of highest
prevalence. Much more work needs to be done to establish the actual role
of saliva in transmitting HTLV-III because oral contagion has the
greatest potential to spread the disease. Efforts to determine the
latency period are crucial to predicting the future of the epidemic.
Preventive measures--behavior modification and education--hold some hope
of retarding spread of the epidemic pending development of effective
therapy or a vaccine.
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*PREVENTION &
CONTROL/TRANSMISSION Contraceptive Devices Female Health Education
Homosexuality Human Institutionalization Male Risk Sex Behavior
Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S. Time Factors United States JOURNAL