Sexual Health Vol. 8; No. 4: P. 541-550 (11..11) - Tuesday,
"The growing number of older individuals with HIV in Australia
implies that the prevalence of dementia and additional HIV-
associated neurocognitive disorders will increase," wrote the
authors, who commented on the lack of estimates "of the future
burden of neurocognitive disease in this population."
Using data from the HIV/AIDS Registry, the team estimated the
number and age profile of people living with HIV to the end of
2009, then extrapolated these estimates to 2030. The future
burden of HIV-associated dementia was estimated based on the
prevalence of HAD from 2005 to 2010 in a large Sydney
hospital, and cost estimates from the AIDS Dementia and HIV
Psychiatry Service were used to estimate future costs.
The authors' calculations suggest that the number of
Australians with HIV will increase from 16,228 men and 1,797
women in 2009 to 26,963 men and 5,224 women in 2030. The
numbers of these individuals age 60 and older are expected to
increase from 1,140 men and 78 women to 5,442 men (a 377
percent increase) and 721 women (an 825 percent increase).
"Based on a 7.8 percent (157/2,004) HAD prevalence obtained
from hospital data, individuals with HAD will increase in
number from 1,314 men and 143 women in 2009 to 2,204 men and
421 women in 2030," the authors reported. The estimated 22 men
and two women with non-HIV dementia in 2009 is predicted to
increase to 104 men and 12 women by 2030. Annual cost of care
is forecast to rise from approximately $29 million (US $31
million) in 2009 to $53 million (US $56.7 million) in 2030,
chiefly for full-time residential care.
"Neurocognitive disorders will place an increasing burden on
resources, especially as those living with HIV age," the
authors concluded. "Because it is unclear if HAD is an
increased risk factor for non-HIV dementia, our calculations
may be conservative."