JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, Aug. 17 (UPI) -- More than 7
million people could be infected with HIV or AIDS in South
Africa in the next 10 years, a report said Friday.
South Africa already had four million HIV/AIDS patients by
"Between 5.3 and 6.1 million would suffer from HIV/AIDS by
2005, and 6 million to 7.5 million by 2010," said a government
sponsored research, titled 'Impending Catastrophe Revised.
A joint United Nations and the World Health Organization
program on HIV/AIDS estimates that by December last year the
world had more than 36 million people infected with HIV, 34.7
million adults and 1.4 million children.
In South Africa, almost 25 percent of women aged between 15 and
19 would become infected between 1995 and 2010. In comparison,
only five percent of men in that age group would fall victim to
the virus, the report said.
However, the male ratio increases to 14.5 percent, still a half
percent less than women, in the next age group of 20 to 24.
"Women are at greater risk of infection due to biological,
social and economic factors," says the report published in
South Africa's The Star newspaper.
By 2005 there will be about one million AIDS orphans under the
age of 15 in South Africa, rising to 2.5 million in 2010. The
majority of these orphans would be children over the age of
four, the report says.
AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 120,000 a year in 2000
to between 354,000 and 383,000 in 2005. It could increase to
between 545,000 and 635,000 deaths in 2010.
Other estimates are much higher. Quoting another study, the
newspaper said that AIDS might cause as many as 800,000 deaths
"Already half of all adult deaths in South Africa can be
attributed to AIDS and it will further increase if not
checked," the report said.
It estimates that a 15 percent increase in condom use would
result in a decrease of 150,000 HIV/AIDS cases among people
aged between 20 and 25 by 2015.