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CDC HIV/AIDS/Viral Hepatitis/STD/TB Prevention News Update

AIDS Projections may be Inaccurate


United Press International (08/01/88)

PAUl Abramson, University of California at Los Angeles psychologist, says flawed information that fails to understand human sexual behavior has distorted current predictions of the spread of AIDS into the general population. The problem is the lack of "basic scientific method involving the assessment of sexual behavior in the United States," says Abramson. Two meetings of government officials, including the recent Charlottesville Conference, produced projections based on actual cases and the rate at which they occurred. Chuck Fallis of the Centers for Disease Control says such figures may be skewed by people who lie about their sexual behaviors. Fallis said projections based on inaccurate reports of sexual behavior range from the "naive" to the "nonsensical." According to Abramson, if data on human sexuality in the U.S. that has not been updated since the Kinsey report 40 years ago is made current, the rate of error in projected cases of AIDS could be reduced from 30 percent to 5 percent.


Copyright © 1988 -CDC Prevention News Update, Publisher. All rights reserved to Information, Inc., Bethesda, MD. The CDC National Center for HIV, STD and TB Prevention provides the following information as a public service only. Providing synopses of key scientific articles and lay media reports on HIV/AIDS, other sexually transmitted diseases and tuberculosis does not constitute CDC endorsement. This daily update also includes information from CDC and other government agencies, such as background on Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) articles, fact sheets, press releases and announcements. Reproduction of this text is encouraged; however, copies may not be sold, and the CDC HIV/STD/TB Prevention News Update should be cited as the source of the information. Contact the sources of the articles abstracted below for full texts of the articles.

Information in this article was accurate in August 1, 1988. The state of the art may have changed since the publication date. This material is designed to support, not replace, the relationship that exists between you and your doctor. Always discuss treatment options with a doctor who specializes in treating HIV.