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CDC HIV/AIDS/Viral Hepatitis/STD/TB Prevention News Update
African Apocalypse

July 6, 1992
Time (07/06/92) Vol. 140, No. 1, P. 21

Although the AIDS cases in Africa could actually begin to decrease, it would only be a result of the dramatic rise in deaths from AIDS, according to British scientists. Parts of Africa like Uganda, Rwanda, Malawi, and Tanzania in Central and East Africa would feel the largest impact. The researchers indicated that Uganda will have a population of 20 million within 15 years, in comparison to 24 million if the epidemic never occurred. While the predictions are much more severe than those released by the World Health Organization and the Harvard School of Public Health, they cannot be overlooked. The researchers, Roy Anderson of the Imperial College of Science and Technology in London and Robert May of Oxford are highly respected individuals. But there are valid doubts concerning the study; for instance, it estimates a higher level of sexual contact between older HIV-positive men and younger women than may actually happen. However, some public health officials fear the study could influence African governments in abandoning much-needed family-planning programs.

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