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Modeling HIV/AIDS trends in the U.S. by age, gender, race and exposure.
Biggar RJ; Rosenberg PS; National Cancer Inst., Bethesda, MD.
November 30, 1996
3rd Conf Retro and Opportun Infect. 1996 Jan 28-Feb 1;:176. Unique

We modeled HIV/AIDS data within demographic groups and exposure type and back calculated estimates of the HIV prevalence. As of 1 Jan., 1993,between 630,000 and 897,000 persons were living with HIV infection. AIDS rates were highest in black men, among whom approx. equal numbers were infected by homosexual acts and by drug use. Among Blacks in their 30s as of 1 Jan., 1993, about 3% of men and 1% of women were living with HIV infection. Among white men HIV infection occurred mainly by homosexual exposure, with new AIDS cases stable in older age groups. AIDS incidence increased most among Black men and women less than 30 y/o. To account for the rapid increase in young minority persons, many HIV infections must have occurred between 1987 and 1992. Trends were similar for minority women but at a third of the rates. During 1987-92 the peak HIV incidence was in the late 20s. Prevention needs to be especially targeted toward young minority groups, who should be warned of the risks of unprotected homosexual acts as well as drug use and heterosexual acts.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION Adult Female HIV Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION HIV Seroprevalence/*TRENDS Human Male Minority Groups Risk Factors United States/EPIDEMIOLOGY ABSTRACT