10th Anniversary Conference Of The British HIV Association [BHIVA] 15 – 17 April 2004, City Hall, Cardiff, UK

[AUTHOR(S):] S Hué¹, OP Pybus², D Pillay^1
1 Department of Virology, University College London, ² Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK

BHIVA Conf 2004 Apr 15-17;10:O11

BACKGROUND: The population history of HIV-1 can be inferred from viral gene sequences. We investigated the history of the subtype B HIV-1 epidemic in the UK, using recently developed statistical methodologies.

METHODS: A phylogenetic tree including 1784 pol gene sequences from subtype B viruses throughout the world, together with over 1645 sequences from UK isolates, was reconstructed in order to identify independent introductions of HIV-1 within the UK. The dates of introduction of strains, as well as the growth rate of the epidemic, were estimated using a coalescent-based approach, incorporating a calculated rate of nucleotide substitution of the subtype B pol gene.

RESULTS: Four large viral lineages were identified, indicating multiple, independent introductions of subtype B HIV-1 into the UK, dated to the period 1975–1982. Each strain showed an initial exponential phase of growth from time of introduction until the late 1980s, after which the effective population size appeared to plateau until the present, possibly due to altered sexual behaviour.

CONCLUSION: This is the first estimate of the dates of introduction, and growth rates of the UK HIV-1 epidemic using coalescence theory. We illustrate the important epidemiological information inherent in viral sequence data acquired over time.

PRESENTING AUTHOR: S Hué

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Copyright © 2004 - British HIV Association (BHIVA) Reproduction of this abstract (other than one copy for personal reference) must be cleared through the BHIVA Organising Secretariat 1 Mountview Court, 310 Friern Barnet Lane, London N20 0LD