Perelson AS, Essunger P, Markowitz M, Ho DD; Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.
In HIV-1 infected patients, following administration of potential antiretroviral agents, the virus plasma levels drop approximately one hundred fold in the first two weeks. In many patients, this initial rapid decay is followed by a 10-20 fold slower "second phase" of decay. Mathematical models have been used to interpret measured viral load data. We show how such analyses lead to the conclusions that (1) during the rapid "first phase", the rate of plasma virion decline is determined by the clearance rate of free virions and by the death rate of short-lived productively infected cells, and (2) that viral production by a long-lived source, presumably in tissue, is mainly responsible for the second-phase. We estimate that the long-lived source decays with a half-life that ranges from one to four weeks. Using these estimates we project that if there is no third phase, if patients are fully compliant in taking a drug combination that completely inhibits HIV-1 replication, then HIV infection may be able to be eradicated after 2 to 3 years of treatment.
Keywords: AEGIS, Viral Load, HIV-1, HIV Infections, Antiviral Agents, Virion, Models, Theoretical, Virus Replication, Cells, Biology, CD4-Positive T-Lymphocytes, Human, virology, therapy, AIDS
