1st National Conference Human Retroviruses and Related Infections Washington, DC - December 12-16, 1993

Natl Conf Hum Retrovir Relat Infect 1993 Dec 12-16;1: (abstract no. 22)

Rosenberg PS, Biggar RJ, Goedert JJ
National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD

Backcalculation models were developed to estimate past incidence of HIV infection in different age groups from age-specific counts of AIDS incidence. The approach allows the distribution of age at HIV infection to change over time. The incubation distributions depend on calendar time to accommodate treatment effects and on the age at HIV infection because younger age is associated with slower progression.

The models were applied to AIDS incidence data through 1991 for the United States population. For the best-fitting model, the total number of new infections declined from peak levels in the mid-1980s to 40,000-48,000 per year during the 1987-1991 period. Furthermore, the estimated median age at infection declined from above 30 years old in the early 1980's to 25 years old during the 1987-1991 period.

Quantitative estimates were sensitive to the assumed incubation distribution, but the trend towards younger age at infection was a robust feature of the analysis.

Keywords: Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, Aged, Communicable Diseases, Disease Progression, HIV Infections, HIV Seropositivity, Humans, Incidence, Models, Biological, United States

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1993-12-12
22

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