3rd International AIDS Conference Washington, DC, U.S.A. — June 1-5, 1987

Int Conf AIDS. 1987 Jun 1-5;3:1 Abstract No. M.3.1

Nancy A. Hessol¹, GW Rutherford¹, PM O'malley¹, LS Doll², WW Darrow², HW Jaffe², et al.
¹Dept.of Public Health, San Francisco, CA, and ²Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, GA.

To determine the natural history of HIV infection, a stratified random sample of 6,700 homosexual and bisexual men originally recruited between 1978 and 1980 for studies of hepatitis B were evaluated. To date, 662 (9.9%) of these men have been reported with AIDS, and approximately 70% are estimated to be infected with HIV. Of the 719 (11%) men randomly chosen from the entire cohort who participated in AIDS studies, 63 were known to have seroconverted before the studies began in late 1983. These 63 men have now been followed for a mean of 72 months since their initial seropositive specimen or estimated date of seroconversion: 19 (30%) have been reported to have AIDS; 29 (46%) had generalized lymphadenopathy, oral candidiasis, weight loss, persistent idiopathic fever or diarrhea; and 15 (24%) were asymptomatic. Additional data were analyzed from 273 men who participated in hepatitis B vaccine trials, for whom multiple serum specimens were available, and who consented to have their old serum specimens tested for the presence of HIV antibodies. Of these 273 men, 112 (41%) were either seropositive on entry into the cohort (18 men) or had known seroconversion dates within a 24 month period (94 men). Combining these 112 men with the 63 men from the random sample, a Kaplan-Meier survival curve of the cumulative proportion of men without AIDS by duration of HIV infection was constructed. From analysis of these 155 men, an estimated 15% (95% confidence interval, 9 - 21%) of the HIV infected men in the Clinic cohort will develop AIDS over 60 months of infection, 24% (95% c.i., 17 - 31%) will develop AIDS after 72 months, 31% (95% c.i., 22 - 40%) will develop AIDS after 84 months, and 36% (95% c.i., 26 - 46%) after 88 months.

870601
M.3.1

Copyright © 1987 - International AIDS Society (IAS). Reproduction of this abstract (other than one copy for personal reference) must be cleared through the IAS.