5th International AIDS Conference Montreal, Quebec, Canada — Jun 4-9, 1989

Int Conf AIDS 1989 Jun 4-9; 5:164 (abstract no. A.524)
Gupta S, Blythe S, Anderson RM; Imperial College, London, UK

OBJECTIVE: To assess the consequences of changes in sexual behaviour on the transmission dynamics of HIV-1 with reference to the male homosexual community in the United Kingdom.

METHODS: The distribution of sexual activity (rate of acquiring new partners) and transmission probabilities (mirroring the adoption of "safer sex") are altered in a simple model of the transmission dynamics of HIV-1. The model incorporates distributed infectious and incubation periods.

RESULTS: The future course of the HIV-1 epidemic is highly sensitive to the timing and the magnitude of changes in sexual behaviour. The effects of changes in sexual behaviour are not linearly proportional to either the magnitude of the change or the time of its initiation.

CONCLUSIONS: The timing of a change in sexual behaviour is crucial in reducing the numbers of future AIDS cases. Great benefit is obtained by changing sexual behaviour as soon as possible, and any delays drastically reduce the impact of a change.

890604
A524

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