5th International AIDS Conference


Montreal, Quebec, Canada — Jun 4-9, 1989

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Estimates of the AIDS epidemic in Costa Rica, 1989-1993.

Int Conf AIDS 1989 Jun 4-9; 5:170 (abstract no. A.555)
Mata L, Valadez J, Marranghello L; INISA, University of Costa Rica, San Pedro, Costa Rica

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the size and impact of the AIDS epidemic.

METHODS: Five-year projections were obtained by fitting onto four statistical models all cases from epidemic onset in 1984 through December 1988.

RESULTS: The data best fitted the power curve. Linear regression, exponential and logarithmic curves produced smaller R2's and improbable case projections that are either too small or too large. 1) Epidemic in homo/bisexual men: the power curve projected 1989 cases (R2=1) to be about twice those of 1988; thereafter, the doubling time likely increases. 2) Total AIDS cases: fitting by models yielded numbers lower than the number of cases already detected. 3) Total cases minus homo/bisexual cases: estimates were also low. The poor fitting of this subcategory of cases is accounted for by the early and now controlled epidemic in hemophiliacs, with occurrence of similar yearly number of cases, since 1984.

CONCLUSION: AIDS incidence in homosexuals is rising steadily, with no evidence to decline in the next decade. AIDS in hemophiliacs is not rising.

Keywords: AEGIS, Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, Disease Outbreaks, Bisexuality, Homosexuality, Incidence, Models, Statistical, Forecasting, Hemophilia A, Linear Models, Costa Rica, Human, Male, ICA5KWDaegis,acquiredimmunodeficiencysyndrome,diseaseoutbreaks,bisexuality,homosexuality,incidence,models,statistical,forecasting,hemophiliaa,linearmodels,costarica,human,male,ica5

890604
A555

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