AEGiS-07IAC: Forecasting the medical care costs of the HIV epidemic in the United States: 1991-1994.

7th International AIDS Conference


Florence, Italy — June 16-21, 1991

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Forecasting the medical care costs of the HIV epidemic in the United States: 1991-1994.

Int Conf AIDS 1991 Jun 16-21; 7:21 (abstract no. W.D.7)
Hellinger FJ; Agency for Health Care Policy and Research, US Dept. of Health and Human Services

OBJECTIVE: To forecast the cost of medical care for all people with the HIV in the United States during the years 1991-1994.

METHODS: Estimates of the number of persons with AIDS (PWAs) during the years 1991-1994 are derived using statistical models and data on the number of AIDS cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) between January 1984 and September 1990. Estimates of the number of HIV-infected persons without AIDS who receive medical care during the years 1991-1994 is derived from information from numerous sites. It is assumed that the ratio of the number of HIV-infected people without AIDS to the number of PWAs at these sites is representative. Information on the cost of treating a PWA and on the cost of treating an HIV-infected person without AIDS is obtained from insurance companies, Medicaid agencies, HMOs, and hospitals.

RESULTS: It is predicted that the number of HIV-infected people without AIDS receiving care each year will be equal to twice the number of AIDS cases diagnosed that year. It is estimated that the yearly cost of treating a PWA is $32,000, and that the yearly cost of treating an HIV-infected person without AIDS is $5,150. The cost of treating all people with HIV in 1991 is forecast to be $5.8 billion. Of this amount, it is estimated that $1.4 billion will be spent on HIV-infected people without AIDS. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: It is forecast that the cost of treating all people with HIV will increase 21 percent per year between 1991 and 1994, and that $10.4 billion will be spent on treating all people with HIV in 1994.

Keywords: AEGIS, HIV, Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, Forecasting, Costs and Cost Analysis, Disease Outbreaks, HIV Infections, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.), Health Expenditures, Community Health Services, HIV-1, Models, Statistical, HIV Seropositivity, Home Care Services, United States, trends, economics, ICA7KWDaegis,hiv,acquiredimmunodeficiencysyndrome,forecasting,costsandcostanalysis,diseaseoutbreaks,hivinfections,centersfordiseasecontrolandprevention(uKWDsKWD),healthexpenditures,communityhealthservices,hiv-1,models,statistical,hivseropositivity,homecareservices,unitedstates,trends,economics,ica7
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