AEGiS-08IAC: Lessons learned from modeling of the AIDS epidemic in Malawi.

8th International AIDS Conference


Amsterdam, Netherlands — July 19-24, 1992

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Lessons learned from modeling of the AIDS epidemic in Malawi.

Int Conf AIDS 1992 Jul 19-24; 8:We61 (abstract no. WeC 1090)
Namanja G, Liomba G, Sokal D, Delay P, Johnston A, Stover J, Bernstein R; AIDS Secretariat, Malawi.

OBJECTIVES: To make projections of the AIDS epidemic and its impacts in Malawi between now and the year 2000.

METHODS: We used a spreadsheet type model to create plausible high and low scenarios corresponding to future incidence rates of new HIV infections of 1% and 2% per year, and compared these scenarios with projections made by WHO and UNICEF. We then used DemProj, version 3, to make detailed demographic projections and the AIDS Impact Model (AIM) to present the epidemic's impact on tuberculosis cases, numbers of orphans, etc.

RESULTS: Assuming about a 9% adult prevalence in 1990, our low and high scenarios reach national prevalence of about 11% and 18%, respectively, in the year 2000. These two scenarios bracketed the WHO projections, but were lower than the UNICEF projections. Child mortality rates are likely to be between 212 and 240 per 1,000 rather than the 179/1,000 rate projected in the absence of AIDS. Population growth is likely to decrease to between 2.0% and 2.3% rather than the 2.9% rate projected in the absence of AIDS. Reported cases of tuberculosis are expected to increase dramatically from a level of about 5,000 per year to 18,000 to 25,000 per year; and several hundred thousand children will be orphaned.

CONCLUSIONS: The AIDS epidemic will have severe health and socio-economic impacts, but is not likely to reverse population growth in the near future.

Keywords: AEGIS, Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, Disease Outbreaks, HIV Infections, Prevalence, Forecasting, Incidence, United Nations, Population Growth, Tuberculosis, Evaluation Studies, Malawi, Adult, Child, Human, ICA8KWDaegis,acquiredimmunodeficiencysyndrome,diseaseoutbreaks,hivinfections,prevalence,forecasting,incidence,unitednations,populationgrowth,tuberculosis,evaluationstudies,malawi,adult,child,human,ica8
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WeC1090

Copyright © 1992 - International AIDS Society (IAS). Reproduction of this abstract (other than one copy for personal reference) must be cleared through the IAS.