9th International AIDS Conference Berlin, Germany — June 6-11, 1993

Int Conf AIDS 1993 Jun 6-11; 9:128 (abstract no. WS-D25-1)
Brouwers HG, Reinking DP, Kretzschmar M, Jager JC, van Zessen GJ; Netherlands Institute of Social Sexological Research, Utrecht.

OBJECTIVES: (1) Application of survey data in sexual network models; (2) Exploration of the impact of selective partner choice on the spread of HIV. DATA AND

METHODS: Input data and baseline assumptions for network simulation are derived from representative nationwide sexological surveys in the Netherlands (N = 15,000). The surveys contain essential data from both partners and provide detailed data on the determinants of selective partner choice. Using a waiting list model in combination with a life course perspective on sexuality enabled us to deal with both heterogeneity and homogeneity in sexual conduct. 95% of the Dutch heterosexual population consists of 'low-level partner changers' (LLPC), who on a lifetime changes 3-4 times. Besides in age there is socio-economic, geographical and lifestyle resemblance between LLPC. The other 5%, defined as 'high-level partner changer' (HLPC), is responsible for about 50% of the total partner change. Due to heterogeneity in sexual conduct this group is difficult to characterize.

RESULTS: Life course related changes in sexual conduct and time related changes in the pair formation and dissolution are crucial for the sexual network structure and explorations of its impact on the spread of HIV. First explorations showed that intermixing (disassortative mixing) of the HLPC with the LLPC must occur to meet the required needs of partner change. The spread of HIV among the population at large will likely consist of a relatively rapid spread of HIV among local networks with a majority of HLPC, combined with hard to predict and incidental HIV-infections among LLPC.

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