AEGiS-14IAC: Goals modeling in Lesotho: using a resource allocation model to assess Lesotho's HIV/AIDS budget and its impact on the country's epidemic.

14th International AIDS Conference

Barcelona, Spain - July 7-12, 2002

Goals modeling in Lesotho: using a resource allocation model to assess Lesotho's HIV/AIDS budget and its impact on the country's epidemic.

Int Conf AIDS 2002 Jul 7-12; 14:(abstract no. WeOrC1313)

Gaillard EM, Moteetee MM, Jaase N, Khobotle M, Stover J, Bollinger L
The Futures Group International, Port-o-Prince, Haiti

BACKGROUND: The Government of Lesotho initial estimates indicated that a National AIDS Strategic Budget of $1 billion, spread over three years (2001-2003), would be required to reduce the spread of HIV. In order to evaluate if this budget accurately reflected the country's needs and capacity, the Goals model was applied.

METHODS: An economic team of 2 economists and 1 CPA carefully reviewed the budget and scrutinized the cost of each line item. The Goals Model was used to distribute the budget by program component, and to estimate the impact of the budget on the prevalence of HIV. As changes were made in the assumptions, the model automatically updated the budget and the prevalence figures, thereby, ensuring the integrity of the estimates. The results were presented to the HIV/AIDS task force, out of which a technical team of 9 participants was created to further stream down the budget through a prioritization process. In addition, an inventory of available funding in the country as well as an advocacy document, and various consensus-building meetings were planned with key stakeholders to ensure consensus.

RESULTS: The model estimated that to achieve a drop of 19% in HIV prevalence, a budget of not less than $100 millions ($16 per capita) and not more that $275 millions ($47 per capita) would be required for the national response to the HIV-AIDS epidemic in Lesotho. Consequently, a new budget was designed that more realistically reflected the country's goals and proposed activities.

CONCLUSIONS: The analysis reveals that without the economic team and without the Goals Model, it would have been extremely difficult to optimize the allocations of resources while measuring the impact of the budget on the prevalence of HIV. The task force felt confident that the figures were backed up by assumptions that were clearly defined, transparent and defendable at the donors meeting.

Keywords: AEGIS, Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, HIV Infections, Disease Outbreaks, Prevalence, HIV Seropositivity, Budgets, Resource Allocation, Costs and Cost Analysis, Health Resources, Lesotho, utilization, economics

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