16th International AIDS Conference


Toronto, Canada - August 13 - 18, 2006

SIZE ESTIMATION OF MSM AND METHODOLOGY STUDY IN KUNMING, YUNNAN PROVINCE, CHINA

Int Conf AIDS. 2006 Aug 13-18;16 Abstract No. TuAc0404

Y. Zhang1, Y. Deng2
1 HAPAC Yunnan, Beijing, China, 2 HAPAC Yunnan, Kunming, China

BACKGROUND: MSM are at high risk for HIV infection. Accurate size estimation of MSM is critical to the development of effective interventions. Limited studies in China mainly focused on the proportion of MSM among the total population. Previous estimates were based on public data and Delphi method, without unified standards or guidelines.

METHODS:

1) Study methods used to estimate the size of MSM in the past;
2) map settings where MSM congregate together;
3) conduct three captures within two weeks in squares, bars, bathhouses and public toilets and set up an online counter and a popup questionnaire on Yunnan Tongzhi Website for one week;
4) integrate data from the three captures in pairs to obtain estimate for each pair and then estimate the size of MSM at public places based on the geometric means of the three estimates;
5) use divisor method to estimate the size of MSM regularly surfing Internet; and
6) use multiplier method to estimate the size of MSM at high risk of HIV infection.

RESULTS: The size estimation of MSM in the urban area of Kunming City indicated that 1,982 MSM (95% CI: 598 – 3332) frequently visited public places (including squares, bars, bathhouses and public toilets) and 1,040 MSM (974 – 1183) regularly surfed Internet. Totally 5005 MSM (4685 – 5683) were at high risk of HIV infection.

CONCLUSIONS: The combination of capture-recapture method and enumeration method can accurately estimate the size of MSM frequently visiting public places. The combination of online survey and field survey, with complementary divisor method and multiplier method, can produce highly reliable estimates. The application of various methodologies is logic and systematic.

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2006-08-13
TuAc0404

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